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    济南中心城区轨道交通淹没风险与防范能力综合评估

    Comprehensive Assessment of Submergence Risk and Prevention Capability for Rail Transit in Jinan Central City

    • 摘要: 为解决极端降雨下城市轨道交通系统淹没风险评估中区域线网分析与单体车站水力模拟难以融合的问题,构建了一套综合风险评估框架.基于LEC(Likelihood,Exposure,Consequence)风险理论,提出了融合复杂网络分析、水文水力仿真与专家评价法的跨尺度评估模型.以济南市中心城区为研究对象,整合三维地形数据、轨道交通网络拓扑、BIM模型及专家经验等多源数据,分别量化车站的淹没可能性、暴露度与后果,识别高风险车站,并针对典型站点开展精细化三维水力模拟.研究结果表明:在设定降雨情景下,未计入地铁站点设计的防淹水位和临时应急防护措施作用时,生产路、八涧堡、济泺路等因客流、网络位置及地形因素,在本文评价体系中被划分为高风险车站;典型车站的三维数值模拟显示,在设定入流条件下,站厅层立柱使站台与隧道交界处的流量减少约9%,无底部空隙的玻璃挡板可减少流向站台的流量,表现出延缓洪水扩散的作用.构建的“区域识别-单体仿真”评估框架具有较强的可操作性,可为城市轨道交通系统的防洪规划与应急管理提供科学依据.

       

      Abstract: To address the challenge of integrating regional network analysis with individual station hydraulic simulation in the inundation risk assessment of urban rail transit systems under extreme rainfall,this study aims to construct a comprehensive risk assessment framework.Based on the LEC (Likelihood,Exposure,Consequence) risk theory,a cross-scale assessment model is proposed,integrating complex network analysis,hydrological-hydraulic simulation,and expert evaluation methods.Taking the central urban area of Jinan as a case study,multi-source data—including 3D topographic data,rail transit network topology,BIM models,and expert surveys—are utilized to quantify the inundation likelihood,exposure,and consequences of stations.Stations classified as high risk within the assessment framework are selected for refined 3D hydraulic simulations.Under the specified rainfall scenario,without accounting for station-specific design flood protection levels or the effects of temporary emergency flood protection measures,stations including Shengchanlu,Bajianpu,and Jiluolu are classified as high risk based on passenger flows,network positions,and terrain conditions.For the typical station model under the specified inflow conditions,columns reduce the flow rate at the platform-tunnel interface by approximately 9%,while glass barriers without bottom gaps reduce flow toward the platform,indicating potential to delay floodwater spread.The “regional identification-individual simulation” assessment framework established in this study possesses strong operability and provides a scientific basis for flood prevention planning and emergency management in urban rail transit systems.

       

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