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    大型水利枢纽发电日调节非恒定流传播特征及主要驱动因素

    Spatiotemporal Distribution Law of Unsteady Flow Induced by Daily Generation of Large-Scale Hydropower Station and Main Driving Factors

    • 摘要: 大型水利枢纽建成后,坝下枯水期流量显著增加,但上游水电站发电调节产生的非恒定流,给坝下航道船舶通航安全带来了突出问题.因此,研究发电调节非恒定流的传播特征及其驱动因素具有重要意义.以金沙江下游溪洛渡水电站至向家坝水电站梯级间航道为研究对象,基于2015~2020年溪洛渡水电站逐时出库流量、坝下水位以及向家坝水电站坝前水位数据,采用小波分析揭示了溪洛渡水电站的发电调度规律,利用随机森林回归模型识别了溪洛渡水电站日调节坝下水位波动特征及其主要驱动因素,解析了坝下最大水位变幅与最大流量变幅的相关关系,构建了坝下日内最大水位变幅的分布函数,并评估了在满足船舶通航安全的最大水位变幅约束下,非恒定流的影响范围及其累积频率.研究结果表明:①溪洛渡坝下最大水位变幅的主要驱动因素是出库流量变幅和向家坝水电站坝前水位,二者累积贡献率超过82%;②在向家坝坝前不同水位级条件下,溪洛渡坝下最大水位变幅与流量变幅呈显著的正线性相关关系;③向家坝库尾段航道,同时满足最大日变幅水位不超过3m且最大时变幅水位不超过1m的条件下,累积频率达95%的区域位于溪洛渡水电站坝址下游10.7km以外.

       

      Abstract: After the construction of the large-scale hydropower station,the flow during the dry season downstream will significantly increased.However,the channel downstream the dam will be affected by the unsteady flow induced by daily regulation of the upstream hydropower stations,which directly pose a threat to the safety of ship navigation.It is of great significance to study the spatiotemporal distribution and propagation mechanism of unsteady flow induced by daily regulation of the hydropower stations.This study focuses on the channel between XLD hydropower station and XJB hydropower station in the lower reach of Jinsha river.The data of hourly outflow of XLD hydropower station,water stage downstream of XLD hydropower station and hourly water stage in front of dam of XJB hydropower station during 2015~2020 were adopted.The power generation dispatching rules of XLD hydropower station was revealed by using wavelet analysis.The characteristics and main driving factors of water level fluctuation affected by the unsteady flow induced by daily generation of XLD hydropower station was identified based on the random forest regression.The correlation between maximum water level fluctuation and maximum discharge fluctuation downstream of XLD hydropower station was analyzed.The probability distribution function of maximum water level fluctuation downstream of XLD hydropower station was constructed.The influence area and cumulative frequency of the unsteady flow induced by daily regulation of XLD hydraulic station under the critical threshold condition of the maximum water level variation amplitude for ensuring the safety of ship navigation were analyzed.The study produced some important results:①The main driving factors of the maximum water level fluctuation downstream of XLD hydraulic station are both amplitude variation of discharge from XLD hydropower station and water stage in front of dam of XJB hydropower station,the cumulative contribution rate of which reaches more than 82%;②The maximum amplitude variation of water stage increases with the increasing of maximum amplitude variation of discharge downstream of XLD hydropower station,and there is a significant positive linear correlation between them;③The area with a cumulative frequency of 95% that satisfies the conditions of maximum daily water level variation is less than or equal to 3m and maximum hourly water level variation is less than or equal to 1m is located more than 10.7km downstream from the dam site of XLD hydropower station.

       

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