Abstract: The evolution of the “production-living-ecological space” (PLES) pattern in plateau cities plays a critical role in regional sustainable development through its influence on carbon effects.To accurately predict land-use changes and carbon emission trends in ecologically sensitive areas,this study takes Kunming City as a case study.Based on ArcGIS spatial analysis,a functional classification system of PLES was established for the years 2000,2005,2010,and 2020 to analyze land-use transitions and the evolution of carbon effects.A coupled framework integrating the CA-MCE-Markov model and the grey prediction model was employed to simulate spatial land-use dynamics and temporal carbon effect trends,enabling the synchronous prediction of land-use change and carbon effects.The results indicate that from 2000 to 2020,production and living space in Kunming expanded,while ecological space decreased.During the same period,the total carbon effect increased from 1 590.26×10⁴t to 2 704.94×10⁴t,representing a growth of 70.09%.Projections for 2030 suggest that the positive carbon effect of production space will further increase by 313.77×10⁴t,and the overall carbon effect level is expected to remain relatively high.On the one hand,the pronounced expansion of production and living spaces accompanied by the contraction of ecological space has driven a continuous rise in urban carbon emissions.On the other hand,the carbon effect changes across different functional spaces exhibit clear regularities,with production space dominating the overall increase in carbon emissions,while ecological space,although experiencing a weakened carbon sink function,continues to play a crucial role in regulating urban carbon balance.Optimizing future land-use structure and enhancing coordination among functional spaces are therefore essential for reducing urban carbon intensity.This study provides a quantitative basis for land-use optimization and low-carbon development strategies in plateau cities.