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    基于贝叶斯理论的长期运行水工结构数字孪生模型构建方法

    A Bayesian Theory-Based Method for Digital Twin Model Construction of Long-Term Service Hydraulic Structures

    • 摘要: 针对长期服役的水工结构健康监测中模型精度低、不确定性难以量化的问题,提出了基于贝叶斯理论驱动的数字孪生模型构建方法.该方法融合数据驱动与模型驱动思路,结合有限元模型更新与贝叶斯概率框架,通过两步更新策略构建了动态自校准的数字孪生模型.首先,建立多分区有限元模型,开展模态识别与参数敏感性分析,选取敏感参数进行结构模型更新;其次,采用两步模型更新方法——确定性更新用于优化初始参数,贝叶斯不确定性更新用于量化参数不确定性,并结合Metropolis-Hastings(MH)抽样算法提高计算效率.以中国陕西省某服役超50年的矩形古渡槽为研究对象,开展了物理模型试验与数值验证.结果表明:两步更新方法显著提升了模型收敛效率(提升约25%),更新后各阶频率误差为1.23%~6.42%,仅第2阶误差略高,为18.17%;分区模型进一步增强了损伤识别能力,损伤区域的弹性模量折减误差为5.2%.该方法通过MATLAB与ABAQUS交互实现自动更新,为水工结构全生命周期安全评估提供了一种高精度、动态化的解决方案.

       

      Abstract: To address the challenges of low model accuracy and unquantified uncertainties in the health monitoring of long-serving hydraulic structures,this study developed a Bayesian theory-driven approach for constructing digital twin models.The method integrates data-driven and model-based strategies by combining finite element model (FEM) updating with a Bayesian probabilistic framework,establishing a dynamically self-calibrating model through a two-step updating process.First,a multi-zone FEM was constructed,followed by modal identification and parameter sensitivity analysis to identify sensitive parameters for structural model updating.A two-step updating methodology was then applied:deterministic updating optimized the initial parameters,while Bayesian uncertainty updating quantified parameter uncertainties using the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) sampling algorithm to enhance computational efficiency.The proposed method was validated via field tests and numerical simulations on a 50-year-old rectangular aqueduct in Shaanxi Province,China.Results show that the two-step updating method improves convergence efficiency by approximately 25%.The frequency errors after updating range from 1.23% to 6.42%,with the exception of the second-order mode error at 18.17%.The zoned FEM also improves damage identification,with a 5.2% error in elastic modulus reduction in damaged zones.This automated updating approach,implemented through MATLAB-ABAQUS integration,offers a high-precision and dynamic solution for lifecycle safety assessment of hydraulic structures.

       

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