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    基于WRF和CMIP6的北京市降水数值模拟及未来预估

    Numerical Simulation and Future Prediction of Precipitation in Beijing Based on WRF and CMIP6

    • 摘要: 为全面评估北京市降水的时空演变特征及未来发展趋势,基于历史观测降水数据,使用中尺度天气研究与预报模式(WRF)对2020年8月1日~28日北京市降水进行数值模拟,并利用第六阶段耦合模型比较计划(CMIP6)中不同气候模式的输出结果预估未来降水变化.研究结果表明,北京市降水量空间分布不均,与20世纪80年代相比,21世纪10年代的年均降水量在多数地区有所上升,海淀站年平均降水量增加140.07mm;受热岛效应、海拔等影响,北京市的降水量空间分布差异较大,模拟时段内北京南部大部分区域降水量超过190mm;经偏差订正后未来预估显示,北京市年均降水量受碳排放量增加影响呈持续上升.观测数据与数值模拟的有机结合为北京市未来气候变化适应性研究提供了量化数据和技术支持.

       

      Abstract: To comprehensively evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and future development trend of precipitation in Beijing,based on historical observation precipitation data,the regional climate model WRF was used to simulate the precipitation in Beijing from August 1 to 28,2020,and the output results of different climate models in CMIP6 project were used to predict the future precipitation changes.The results indicate that the spatial distribution of precipitation in Beijing is uneven.Compared with the 1980s,the average annual precipitation in 2010 increased in most areas,and the average annual precipitation in Haidian Station increased by 140.07mm;Influenced by the urban heat island effect,elevation and other factors,there is a significant spatial variation in precipitation in Beijing,and the precipitation in most parts of southern Beijing exceeds 190mm during the simulation period;The future forecast after deviation correction shows that the average annual precipitation in Beijing continues to rise due to the increase of carbon emissions.The organic combination of observational data and numerical simulation provides quantitative data and technical support for future climate change adaptation research in Beijing.

       

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