Abstract:
To comprehensively evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and future development trend of precipitation in Beijing,based on historical observation precipitation data,the regional climate model WRF was used to simulate the precipitation in Beijing from August 1 to 28,2020,and the output results of different climate models in CMIP6 project were used to predict the future precipitation changes.The results indicate that the spatial distribution of precipitation in Beijing is uneven.Compared with the 1980s,the average annual precipitation in 2010 increased in most areas,and the average annual precipitation in Haidian Station increased by 140.07mm;Influenced by the urban heat island effect,elevation and other factors,there is a significant spatial variation in precipitation in Beijing,and the precipitation in most parts of southern Beijing exceeds 190mm during the simulation period;The future forecast after deviation correction shows that the average annual precipitation in Beijing continues to rise due to the increase of carbon emissions.The organic combination of observational data and numerical simulation provides quantitative data and technical support for future climate change adaptation research in Beijing.