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    能源干旱视角下水风光一体化系统适应性调度效能再评估

    Re-Evaluation of Adaptive Operation for Hydro-Wind-Solar Integrated Systems from the Perspective of Energy Drought

    • 摘要: 在变化环境背景下,深入理解“能源干旱”等极端低输出事件的演化规律及其对系统调度效果的影响,已成为当前研究的难点与前沿.基于前期提出的数据同化驱动型适应性调度框架,从能源干旱视角对水风光一体化系统的调度效能进行再评估.首先,构建了“资源干旱-能源干旱”全链条评估框架,界定了调度前的极端低潜在发电能力(资源干旱)与调度后的极端低受限出力(能源干旱).其次,利用随机模拟技术构建了涵盖均值、变异系数及季节性变化特征的多种非一致性压力场景,识别了不同变异类型对资源干旱向能源干旱传播过程的影响.以黄河上游水风光一体化系统为案例的研究表明:(1)水、风、光资源干旱的高发期存在明显的季节性位错(分别集中于冬季、冬季、夏季),且干旱强度随资源随机性增强呈递增趋势(水<光<风).在各类非一致性情景中,反映量级的均值变化是驱动资源干旱风险演变的首要因子,而反映波动特征的离散程度及反映季节分布的季节性分配变化,其影响相对有限.(2)适应性调度显著抑制了干旱事件由资源端向能源端的传播.相较于传统调度,该框架使子系统及一体化系统的能源干旱持续时间缩短0.3~3个月,干旱强度降低0.4~4.0.此外,由于下游系统承接了上游调节后的出流波动,其能源干旱表现出更强的累积性特征.

       

      Abstract: Understanding “energy drought” and its impact on system performance is a key challenge under changing environments.This study extends our previously proposed data assimilation-driven adaptive operation framework to re-evaluate system performance from an energy drought perspective.A comprehensive “resource drought-energy drought” assessment framework is established,defining the extreme low value of potential power generation capacity before operation (resource drought) and that of constrained output after operation (energy drought).Furthermore,non-stationary stress scenarios characterized by variations in mean level,variation coefficient,and seasonal distribution are constructed using stochastic simulation,identifying how different variation types influence drought propagation from resources to energy outputs.A case study on the hydro-wind-solar integrated system in the upper Yellow River basin reveals:(1)The periods with high incidence of hydropower,wind,and solar resource droughts exhibit clear seasonal misalignment (winter,winter,and summer,respectively),whereas drought intensity increases with resource stochasticity (hydropower 

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