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    黄河上游水风光能源资源未来演变特征预估

    Projection of Future Changing Characteristics of Hydro,Wind and Solar Energy Sources in the Upper Yellow River

    • 摘要: 流域水风光一体化是水利行业落实“双碳”目标的重要路径.然而,水、风、光资源均受气象与气候因素影响,全球气候变化使得水风光一体化系统的安全、高效运行面临更高风险.因此,亟待研究气候变化下水风光能源资源的演变特征,为水风光一体化系统的适应性调控提供科学依据.基于CMIP6多模式、多情景数据,构建径流及风光出力模拟模型,预估未来黄河上游水风光能源资源的演变特征.研究结果表明:在CMIP6模式下,黄河上游流域未来多年平均径流量较历史基准期减少,光伏发电潜力显著增加,风力发电潜力显著降低;与历史基准期相比,未来径流与风光出力的变化率分别为-27.7%~-12.6%、1.1%~15.6%和-29.2%~-15.1%.

       

      Abstract: The construction of basin-scale hydro-wind-solar hybrid generation system represents a crucial pathway to implement the “dual carbon” goals.However,hydropower,wind power,and solar power are all influenced by meteorological and climatic factors,and the changing global climate exposes higher risks to safe and efficient operation of the hydro-wind-solar hybrid generation system.Therefore,it is urgent to study the evolution characteristics of hydroelectric,wind,and solar energy resources under climate change,thereby providing a scientific basis for the adaptive regulation of such integrated systems.In this study,we developed simulation models for runoff and wind-solar power output under multiple CMIP6 models and scenarios to project the evolution characteristics of hydro-wind-solar energy sources in the upper Yellow River.The results indicate that under CMIP6 scenarios,the future multi-year average runoff is projected to decrease compared to the historical baseline period.The potential for solar photovoltaic power generation is projected to increase significantly,while the potential for wind power generation is projected to decrease significantly.Compared to the historical baseline period,the future changes in runoff,wind potential,and solar potential are,respectively,-27.7%~-12.6%,1.1%~15.6% and -29.2%~-15.1%.

       

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