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    风-光电站群联合出力场景生成及缩减方法

    Scenario Generation and Reduction Method for Clustered Wind-Photovoltaic Joint Power Output

    • 摘要: 多站点风电与光伏联合出力存在复杂的时空相关结构和跨资源依赖关系,对其准确统一刻画是清洁能源基地规划中的关键问题.基于此,提出了耦合最小二乘生成对抗网络(LSGAN)、Vine Copula函数与快速向前简约法(FFS)的联合出力场景生成与缩减框架.首先,基于LSGAN分别构建了风电与光伏多站点出力模型,刻画单资源时空相关特征;其次,基于Vine Copula构建了风-光跨资源联合分布模型,描述非线性依赖关系;最后,基于FFS方法对生成场景进行缩减,在保持统计特性的基础上提取典型运行模式.以雅砻江流域中游清洁能源基地为算例对所提方法进行验证.结果表明,所提方法生成的联合出力场景能较好保持真实数据的时间相关性、空间相关结构及跨资源依赖特征,相关矩阵平均绝对误差为0.035,较LSGAN方法约降低67.6%.缩减后的典型运行模式在保持联合分布特性与极端出力特征的同时,实现了海量场景的有效归纳与压缩.所提方法可为新能源大基地容量规划与调节资源配置分析提供具有统计代表性的运行模式输入.

       

      Abstract: Multi-site joint wind and photovoltaic outputshave complex spatiotemporal correlations and cross-resource dependencies.Accurately characterizing these features is a key issue in large-scale renewable energy planning.To address this issue,this study proposes a joint output scenario generation and reduction framework that couples Least Squares Generative Adversarial Network (LSGAN),Vine Copula,and Fast Forward Selection (FFS).First,LSGAN constructed multi-site wind and photovoltaic output models to characterize single-resource spatiotemporal correlation features.Then,Vine Copula established a wind-photovoltaic joint distribution model to describe nonlinear dependency relationships between different resources.Finally,FFS reduced the generated scenarios and extracted representative operating modes while preserving statistical characteristics.A case study based on the clean energy base in the middle reaches of the Yalong River basin demonstrates the effectiveness of the method.The results show that the generated scenarios maintain consistency with real data in temporal correlations,spatial correlation structures,and cross-resource dependency relationships.The mean absolute error of the correlation matrix is 0.035,which is about 67.6% lower than that of the LSGAN method.The reduced representative operating modes retain joint distribution characteristics and extreme output features while effectively compressing massive scenarios.The proposed method provides statistically representative operating scenario inputs for renewable energy base capacity planning and regulation resource allocation analysis.

       

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