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    考虑环境因子空间特征的高地温热害敏感性区划模型研究:以藏东高原地区为例

    Geothermal Hazard Susceptibility Assessment Model Considering the Spatial Feature of Environmental Factors:Case Study at the Eastern Tibet Plateau Region

    • 摘要: 藏东地区地质构造复杂,断裂带分布密集,铁路隧道等深部工程面临高地温热害影响.针对这一问题,基于传统地温梯度法,对藏东地区高地温热害敏感性空间分布问题开展了研究.在藏东地区某铁路共6条隧道中采集169个实测地温数据,将区内已探明的温泉点作为高地温样本点,构建了藏东地区高地温热害共239个空间样本的数据集.基于此,分析了区域高程、坡度、坡向和地形起伏度等高程属性及岩性、距断裂带距离等环境因子特征,分别基于随机森林(RF)和卷积神经网络(CNN)建立了藏东高原地区高地温热害敏感性空间区划模型,并利用ROC曲线及混淆矩阵对模型预测精度进行了验证分析.研究结果表明,构建的模型对于藏东地区高地温热害敏感性空间区划的准确性约为89%.该研究成果有助于确定热害风险区域,可为高地温地区铁路工程选线设计等提供参考.

       

      Abstract: The complex geological structures,pronounced topographic relief,and intricate hydrological environment of the Eastern Tibetan region lead to frequent occurrences of geothermal hazards,posing significant challenges for deep engineering projects such as railway tunnels.To address this issue,this study builds upon the traditional geothermal gradient method to further investigate the spatial distribution of geothermal heat hazard susceptibility in eastern Tibet.Based on 169 measured geothermal data points collected from six tunnels and by incorporating identified hot spring sites as high-temperature geothermal sample points,a spatial dataset of 239 geothermal heat hazard samples was constructed.Using this dataset,environmental attributes such as elevation,slope,aspect,terrain relief,lithology,and distance to fault zones were analyzed.Susceptibility zoning models for geothermal heat hazards in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau were developed using Random Forest (RF) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) approaches.The accuracy of these models was validated and compared using ROC curves and confusion matrices.The results indicate that the CNN model achieved an accuracy of approximately 89% for geothermal heat hazard susceptibility zoning in eastern Tibet,outperforming the RF model.This study can help identify high-risk areas of geothermal heat hazards and provides essential references for railway alignment and design in geothermal hazard-prone regions.

       

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